Costs of Air Pollution

Air Pollution takes years off people’s lives. It causes substantial pain and suffering, among adults and children alike. And it damages food production, at a time when we need to feed more people than ever. This is not just an economic issue, it is a moral one.

Air Pollution can be produced both outdoors and indoors. For the poorest families, indoor smog from coal or dung fired cooking stoves is typically the more serious problem. As economies develop and start to electrify, motorize and urbanize, outdoor air pollution becomes the bigger issue. Cleaner technologies are available, with the potential to improve air quality considerably. But policymakers tend to focus myopically on the costs of action, rather than the costs of inaction.

The Economic Consequences of Outdoor Air Pollution estimates that outdoor Air Pollution will cause 6-9 Million premature deaths annually by 2060, compared to 3 Million in 2010. That is equivalent to a person dying every 4-5 seconds. Cumulatively, more than 200 Million people will die prematurely in the next 45 years as a result of air pollution. There will also be more pollution-related illness. New cases of bronchitis in children aged 6-12 are forecast to soar to 36 Million per year by 2060, from 12 Million today. For adults, they predict 10 Million new cases per year by 2060, up from 3.5 Million today. Children are also being increasingly affected by asthma.

These health problems will be concentrated in densely populated areas with high particulate matter (PM) concentrations, especially cities in China and India. In per capita terms, mortality is also set to reach high levels in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus region and other parts of Asia, such as South Korea, where ageing populations are highly vulnerable to air pollution.

The impact of air pollution is often discussed in dollar terms. By 2060, 3.75 billion working days per year could be lost due to the adverse health effects of dirty air. The direct market impact of this pollution in terms of lower worker productivity, higher health spending and lower crop yields could exceed 1% of gross domestic product, or $2.6 trillion, annually by 2060. On average, individuals would be prepared to pay around $30 to reduce their annual risk of dying prematurely by one in 100,000.

By that measure, the global cost of premature deaths caused by outdoor air pollution would reach a staggering $18-25 trillion a year by 2060. Arguably, this is not “real” money, as the costs are not related to any market transactions. But it does reflect the value people put on their very real lives. It is time for governments to stop fussing about the costs of efforts to limit air pollution and start worrying about the much larger costs of allowing it to continue unchecked. Their citizens’ lives are in their hands.