World in the next 5 years

These are uncertain times whether it’s the anti-globalization backlash in the US, or the probable break-up of the European Union (EU) or closer home, the increase in terrorist activity in Pakistan, we’re badly in need of a crystal ball that will tell us how these disturbing trends pan out.

Global economic growth will slow, making life difficult for governments, who will come under increased pressure to deliver jobs and welfare. Governance will become more difficult. Real wages have been stagnant in the West, and this will lead to increased populism and dissatisfaction with globalization. Both the US and Europe will turn inward. Stresses in societies will increase as they fragment along religious and cultural lines, aided and abetted by the echo chambers of social media.

Geopolitical risks will rise, as ambitious new powers such as China and Russia seek to expand their presence. Non-traditional forms of warfare, such as cyber-warfare and terrorism, will gain prominence. Environmental stress will increase. One of the reasons for the doom and gloom, from the American viewpoint, is the demise of Pax Americana and the emergence of assertive new power centres which are not enamored of democracy.

India will be the world’s fastest growing economy in the next five years. However, “internal tensions over inequality and religion will complicate its expansion”. Violent extremism, terrorism and instability will continue to hangover Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the region’s fragile communal relations. Populism and sectarianism will intensify if Bangladesh, Pakistan and India fail to provide employment and education for growing urban populations and officials continue to govern principally through identity politics.

It quotes an estimate that India alone will need to create as many as 10 Million jobs per year in the coming decades to accommodate people of working age in the labour force. Increasing urbanization will mean that providing services for burgeoning city populations will be a huge challenge for resource strapped governments in South Asia, and that may ‘create new social, political, environmental, and health vulnerabilities’.

Message is that the world is now a more uncertain and dangerous place, which makes pursuing the right policies all the more important. For India, the lesson is that the leadership’s focus must be on providing jobs for the masses and improving the delivery of services to them, while at the same time doing all it can to ensure peace, including communal peace, in the region.

World without Wi-Fi

The Wi-Fi Icon – a dot with radio waves radiating outward – glows on nearly every internet – connected device, from the iPhone to thermostats to TVs. But it’s starting to fade from the limelight. With every major US wireless carrier now offering unlimited data plans, consumers don’t need to log on to a Wi-Fi Network to avoid costly overage changes anymore.

That’s a critical change that threatens to render Wi-Fi obsolete. And with new competitive technologies crowding in, the future looks even dimmer. In an all data you can eat world, consumer’s use of Wi-Fi at public places like stadiums and airports will drop to a third of all mobile data traffic from about half. This means businesses not upgrading public access Wi-Fi as often. Smartphone users might not even turn on their Wi-Fi capability.

Customers are rational. When pricing incentives favor Wi-Fi customers use more Wi-Fi. When pricing incentives shift, so does behavior. The erosion of Wi-Fi influence is likely to be slow and uneven. While unlimited data plans make the technology less necessary for phones, many home devices, from a MacBook to Amazon Echo, still use Wi-Fi to connect to Internet. Wi-Fi also helps fill in gaps in some office buildings and homes that have spotty cellphone coverage.

Some wireless carriers also still rely on Wi-Fi Networks to handle a large portion of the growing volume of internet traffic. Putting all of that Netflix binging and Spotify listening on cellular networks could strain capacity. Unlimited plans aren’t the only threat. Wi-Fi has survived 20 years and spurred a roughly $20 Billion industry of gear, service providers and chipmakers – mainly because it’s technology is open to innovation and it operates freely in the nation’s unlicensed airwaves. Wi-Fi now faces competition from other technologies that also run in those same frequencies such as LTE and CBRS (Citizen Broadband Radio Service).

Learning from Womenonmics

Japan Prime Minister is best known for his economic revival strategy consisting of three arrows, collectively called Abenomics. His three arrows consisted of expansionary monetary and fiscal policies (the first two arrows) and structural and economic reforms (the third). This third arrow consisted of deregulation, trade liberalization, tax reform and industrial restructuring.

An important component of the third arrow was “Womenonmics”, getting more women into the workforce and in positions of leadership. Japanese women are highly educated on average, and indeed have a higher college enrollment than men. Japanese female participation rate has risen to 73% - slightly ahead of the US, it is still far below Sweden’s 88.3%. A recent government survey showed 63% of women quit their jobs disappointed by their career prospects. 70% of the women are not able to return to the workforce after the birth of their first child. The reasons include non-availability of quality childcare centres.

Female participation is crucial for Japan, since its population is declining and also ageing rapidly. The elderly will make up 40% of the total population by 2060, and the ratio of working to retired persons will be 1:1 by 2050. Unless women participate in much greater numbers to expand the workforce, the pension and tax burden will be crushing and will affect economic growth. Realizing this, Abe put in place numerical targets and tangible metrics in his “Womenonmics” strategy. He initially aimed to have 30% of leadership positions for women in government and business.

The “Womenonmics” plan also contains reforms like removing the tax penalty for working mothers, and introducing new training subsidies to help them return to the workplace. Even though India is not in the OECD peer group, there are lessons from Japan “Womenonmics”. The Indian parliament recently passed a landmark maternity benefits bill, which will benefit women returning to the workforce.

Beyond education, skilling, pay parity and board positions, India’s agenda also includes providing women leadership positions in political life. The recent violation experience in Nagaland, wherein the local community refused to let women enjoy 33% reservation in local government shows how far we have to go. This resistance to even constitutional mandates shows that there is as much a cultural hurdle as an economic policy hurdle to achieving progress for women.

Leadership Lessons from US Navy SEALS

If you’re struck and mind refuses to go further, you are only 40% done. You still have remaining 60% of ability, energy and persistence to move further.

Ownership – Leadership starts with ownership. Responsibility and ownership spell power. Take the ownership for the outcomes that go wrong even if things were not in control. Extreme ownership leads to drive and ability to make half chances work.

Engagement – The level of engagement and the probability of success is directly proportional. Higher the engagement of the team in planning, lesser is fatigue in challenging phases of execution. If the leader or any team member is down, others must be able to perform and complete the task.

Detachment – Sometimes, a leader needs to take a tough decision in an unwanted situation. Train your mind for intense situations and extreme pressure so that you can step past the roadblocks and deliver results.

Lead by Example – Procrastination and avoiding responsibility is not what an effective leader would do. SEAL leaders know not to ask team members what they wouldn’t do themselves. From discipline in daily routine to extreme training, from learning to adapt to embracing new ideas and concepts to win, a successful leader leads by setting an example.