World in the next 5 years

These are uncertain times whether it’s the anti-globalization backlash in the US, or the probable break-up of the European Union (EU) or closer home, the increase in terrorist activity in Pakistan, we’re badly in need of a crystal ball that will tell us how these disturbing trends pan out.

Global economic growth will slow, making life difficult for governments, who will come under increased pressure to deliver jobs and welfare. Governance will become more difficult. Real wages have been stagnant in the West, and this will lead to increased populism and dissatisfaction with globalization. Both the US and Europe will turn inward. Stresses in societies will increase as they fragment along religious and cultural lines, aided and abetted by the echo chambers of social media.

Geopolitical risks will rise, as ambitious new powers such as China and Russia seek to expand their presence. Non-traditional forms of warfare, such as cyber-warfare and terrorism, will gain prominence. Environmental stress will increase. One of the reasons for the doom and gloom, from the American viewpoint, is the demise of Pax Americana and the emergence of assertive new power centres which are not enamored of democracy.

India will be the world’s fastest growing economy in the next five years. However, “internal tensions over inequality and religion will complicate its expansion”. Violent extremism, terrorism and instability will continue to hangover Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the region’s fragile communal relations. Populism and sectarianism will intensify if Bangladesh, Pakistan and India fail to provide employment and education for growing urban populations and officials continue to govern principally through identity politics.

It quotes an estimate that India alone will need to create as many as 10 Million jobs per year in the coming decades to accommodate people of working age in the labour force. Increasing urbanization will mean that providing services for burgeoning city populations will be a huge challenge for resource strapped governments in South Asia, and that may ‘create new social, political, environmental, and health vulnerabilities’.

Message is that the world is now a more uncertain and dangerous place, which makes pursuing the right policies all the more important. For India, the lesson is that the leadership’s focus must be on providing jobs for the masses and improving the delivery of services to them, while at the same time doing all it can to ensure peace, including communal peace, in the region.